I already dropped him in one of my leagues in order to pick up Justin Blackmon. While it's a big downgrade at QB, the Jags should also be playing from behind in every game.
Good question, Joe.
Seattle and San Fran have two of the best defenses in the league and this game has all the makings of a low scoring defensive battle. You can be sure that Boldin's 200 yard performance against Green Bay did not go unnoticed by the Seahawks and they will certainly have a plan to keep Boldin from embarrassing them this week. Seattle has two All-Pro cornerbacks in Richard Sherman and Branden Browner, however Browner has a hamstring issue that kept him out of the game against Carolina and he still hasn't practiced this week, so I wouldn't expect him to play on Sunday, either.
Decker had the worst game of his career last Thursday. He dropped a pass in the endzone and another sure first down across the middle. He only caught 2 of his 7 targets. With the Giants poor pass defense and the number of weapons that the Broncos have, Decker should enjoy single coverage all day long. Manning is always willing to take what the defense gives him, and if that's Decker, he could have a big bounceback game.
With all that said, if it were me, I would play Boldin. He's the 49ers number one offensive weapon while Decker is the Broncos fourth option. Take your chances with your best guys.
Think about it in terms of paying per point scored. You paid much more per point scored for those name brand TEs. 16 different tight ends scored a TD in week 1. VD and JW were the #3 and #4 TEs in week 1, true, but JG was ranked #12 and TG was ranked #13. If you're in a 12 team league with 1 starting TE, TG didn't deliver a starters performance. Jared Cook was the #1 TE and he could have been selected in the 9th or 10th round. Julius Thomas was the #2 TE and wasn't even drafted in most leagues (and is the HOT waiver wire selection this week). Jordan Cameron (whom I recommended) was the #6 TE with 108 yds and 1 TD.
As you say, we're only 1 game in but the logic is still sound. It's Moneyball.
UPDATE: Injured Bills QB EJ Manuel will make the start for the Bills. He should not be in your starting lineup.
If you have questions about who to start this week I'll answer them in comments.
Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski are top producers in their offenses, however the next 10 TEs will all catch between 55-70 passes for 600-800 yds and 5 or 6 TDs. There really isn't much difference between them. If you pick Witten or Gonzalez or Vernon Davis, you are really paying for the name. Witten had 110 receptions for just over 1,000 yds last year but he only had 3 TDs. With the emergence of Dez Bryant as a superstud, I would expect Witten to get less work this year. He's also 31, the same age that Gates fell off the cliff and has had declining YPC each of the last 4 years. Gonzalez may be the greatest player ever relative to his peers at his position (after Jerry Rice) but I believe he turns 58 this year (don't quote me on that). How long can he keep it up? And the addition of Stephen Jackson to the Falcons should take targets away from him. If I had to choose any of the top TEs for a surprise year, it might be Vernon Davis. He had an abysmal 2012 catching only 41 passes for 548 and 5 TDs but he had a great run in the playoffs and SF doesn't have many targets this year.
So my point is to be conscious of the opportunity cost of picking one of these brand name TEs. Use that 4th or 5th round pick on Lamar Miller or Eddie Lacy instead and add a starting RB with upside to your bench and then pick up Jordan Cameron in the 10th round. It's much easier to find a starting TE on waivers than a starting RB. And if one of those RBs were to breakout like Alfred Morris last year, you'll be able to command a lot more than Tony Gonzalez in any potential trade.
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