Tuesday, May 6, 2008

CNN Delegate Calculator: Obama's Got It In the Bag

Posted by Greg Hambrick on Tue, May 6, 2008 at 1:28 PM

You know, people can tell you just how difficult the climb is for Hillary to win the Democratic nomination, but you really don't get it until you do the math yourself.

I could play with CNN's delegate calculator for hours (and just might), but here's the two key points:

As long as Obama collects half of the remaining superdelegates, he would only need 34 percent of the delegates handed out in the remaining primary states.

Even if Hillary received two-thirds of the remaining superdelegates, she'd need 60 percent of the delegates handed out in the remaining primary states.

We all know that the Clinton campaign is crunching these numbers too, so why the delay in calling an end to this? Well, there likely waiting for a Macaca moment or they're dreaming of that dream ticket. The problem is that the longer this goes on and the more venomous Clinton's attacks become, the less likely that ticket is going to happen.

What Clinton needs to do, beginning tomorrow, is to acquiesce to Obama's talking points, while continuing to maintain her campaign. Let the little engine putter out in June and she just might be able to negotiate the VP slot. That said, my best guess is that Obama will look outside of Washington to maintain the "change" theme.

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